Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$183.72
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$100.01 | 50% 3000-2949 (5949) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.1K | +$3.32 | 42% 1545-2147 (3692) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $524.64 | $501.17 | -$1.14 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $182.99 | $243.84 | +$60.85 | 50% 472-477 (949) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.9¢ | $111.87 | $243.84 | +$131.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.3¢ | $71.12 | — | -$71.12 | |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $148.34 | $113.67 | -$32.33 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 41.9¢ | $49.81 | $109 | +$59.19 | 58% 3566-2579 (6145) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 6.1¢ | $195.15 | — | +$222.22 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $44.55 | $45 | +$0.45 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $89.71 | $42.5 | +$4.85 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 34.6¢ | $18.31 | $40 | +$21.69 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 44.1¢ | $22.38 | $50.81 | +$28.43 | 48% 1159-1269 (2428) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $27.5 | — | -$27.5 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $16.97 | $38.76 | +$21.8 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 73.1¢ | $15.18 | $11.9 | -$3.28 | 43% 1145-1523 (2668) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $23.9 | — | -$13.7 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $9.6 | $10 | +$0.4 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 47% 1969-2182 (4151) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $5 | +$2.8 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 38% 1298-2160 (3458) |
Invested
$1,620.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$100.01
Record
50%
3000-2949 (5949)
Invested
$1,715.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$3.32
Record
42%
1545-2147 (3692)
Invested
$524.64
Value
$501.17
PnL
-$1.14
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$182.99
Value
$243.84
PnL
+$60.85
Record
50%
472-477 (949)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.34
Value
$113.67
PnL
-$32.33
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$49.81
Value
$109
PnL
+$59.19
Record
58%
3566-2579 (6145)
Invested
$195.15
Value
—
PnL
+$222.22
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$44.55
Value
$45
PnL
+$0.45
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$89.71
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$4.85
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18.31
Value
$40
PnL
+$21.69
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$22.38
Value
$50.81
PnL
+$28.43
Record
48%
1159-1269 (2428)
Invested
$27.5
Value
—
PnL
-$27.5
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Invested
$16.97
Value
$38.76
PnL
+$21.8
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
Invested
$15.18
Value
$11.9
PnL
-$3.28
Record
43%
1145-1523 (2668)
Invested
$23.9
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.4
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
47%
1969-2182 (4151)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.8
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
38%
1298-2160 (3458)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.5K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
Down — $501.17
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $113.67
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $109
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $45
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $42.5
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $40