Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (98%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (47%) · Down at 2.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$88.31

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 2.5¢

-94% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Up 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$577.55

Total Shares997

Combined PnL-$67.15

Up8 traders

Total Value$360.83

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$21.16

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$520.07	$491.54	-$3.77	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 69.8¢	$131.56	$133.69	+$2.13	50% 469-472 (941)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 74.7¢	$151.95	$120.32	-$15.76	58% 3558-2569 (6127)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$83.2	$73.17	-$10.03	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$59.58	$48.47	-$11.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$23.62	$24.7	+$1.08
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 29¢	$112.2	$48.29	-$63.91	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$49.55	$45	-$4.55	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$24.01	$22.49	+$2.61	43% 1133-1518 (2651)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$16.78	$17.88	+$1.09	47% 1952-2164 (4116)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 76¢	$20.88	$17.2	-$3.68	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 84¢	$73.37	$10.73	-$2.21	54% 2198-1898 (4096)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$7.51	$7.86	+$0.35	42% 1520-2127 (3647)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$6.72	$7.52	+$0.8	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 17.5¢	$9.02	$6.94	-$2.08	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$3.77	$4.39	+$0.61	50% 740-741 (1481)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	44% 1940-2509 (4449)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$0.9	$1	+$0.1	71% 1495-608 (2103)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$520.07

Value

$491.54

PnL

-$3.77

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$131.56

Value

$133.69

PnL

+$2.13

Record

50%

469-472 (941)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$151.95

Value

$120.32

PnL

-$15.76

Record

58%

3558-2569 (6127)

aaa221ARB<$100

Invested

$83.2

Value

$73.17

PnL

-$10.03

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

Both legs:

Up$59.5869.5¢-$11.11

Down$23.6241.6¢+$1.08

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$112.2

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$63.91

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$49.55

Value

$45

PnL

-$4.55

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

13897651<$100

Invested

$24.01

Value

$22.49

PnL

+$2.61

Record

43%

1133-1518 (2651)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.78

Value

$17.88

PnL

+$1.09

Record

47%

1952-2164 (4116)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$20.88

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$3.68

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$73.37

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$2.21

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$0.35

Record

42%

1520-2127 (3647)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.72

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.8

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.02

Value

$6.94

PnL

-$2.08

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.77

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

740-741 (1481)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

1940-2509 (4449)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

71%

1495-608 (2103)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Up 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2576.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

2676.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.