Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 84%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$51.05
Smart Money Signal
17 of 20 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $533.05 | $500 | +$8.96 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 71.5¢ | $321.41 | $449.61 | +$128.2 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $332.62 | $356.71 | +$24.09 | 50% 469-472 (941) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $137.6 | $137.74 | +$0.14 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $110.34 | $109.53 | -$0.81 | 43% 1133-1518 (2651) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $54.63 | $109.53 | +$54.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.2¢ | $55.71 | — | -$55.71 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 97¢ | $111.96 | $108.1 | -$3.22 | 42% 1520-2127 (3647) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $110.75 | $92.12 | +$4.94 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $92.49 | $62.55 | -$10.94 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $47.6 | $60 | +$12.4 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $45.68 | $60 | +$14.32 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $23.2 | $36.39 | +$13.19 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $12.22 | $30 | +$17.78 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $23.6 | $30 | +$6.4 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $27.25 | $27.53 | +$0.28 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $24.49 | $23.34 | -$1.15 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $9.59 | $24.59 | +$15 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $32.63 | — | -$13.94 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 17.7¢ | $283.13 | — | -$283.13 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $12.89 | $0 | +$17.09 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
Invested
$533.05
Value
$500
PnL
+$8.96
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$321.41
Value
$449.61
PnL
+$128.2
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
Invested
$332.62
Value
$356.71
PnL
+$24.09
Record
50%
469-472 (941)
Invested
$137.6
Value
$137.74
PnL
+$0.14
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
Invested
$110.34
Value
$109.53
PnL
-$0.81
Record
43%
1133-1518 (2651)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.96
Value
$108.1
PnL
-$3.22
Record
42%
1520-2127 (3647)
Invested
$110.75
Value
$92.12
PnL
+$4.94
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$92.49
Value
$62.55
PnL
-$10.94
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$47.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$12.4
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
ohioism<$100Invested
$45.68
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.32
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.2
Value
$36.39
PnL
+$13.19
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$12.22
Value
$30
PnL
+$17.78
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$23.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$6.4
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
Invested
$27.25
Value
$27.53
PnL
+$0.28
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$24.49
Value
$23.34
PnL
-$1.15
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$24.59
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$32.63
Value
—
PnL
-$13.94
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
Invested
$283.13
Value
—
PnL
-$283.13
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
Invested
$12.89
Value
$0
PnL
+$17.09
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $449.61
aswfadq1555
Down — $356.71
0x50f7
Down — $137.74
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $108.1
ply-pm2
Down — $92.12
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $62.55
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $60
ohioism
Down — $60