Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 58%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$18.96
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $513.25 | $492.39 | +$4 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $246.3 | — | -$247 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $246.98 | $492.39 | +$251 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 51.4¢ | $296.59 | $532.72 | +$236.13 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 65.5¢ | $156.27 | $214.25 | +$57.99 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $115.33 | $97.22 | -$1.09 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.5¢ | $70.46 | $97.22 | +$27.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.3¢ | $26.42 | — | -$28.79 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $99.14 | $54.5 | +$2.22 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $55.43 | $37.94 | -$14.99 | 50% 469-472 (941) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $28.29 | $33.91 | +$7.58 | 43% 1133-1518 (2651) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $19.98 | — | -$19.98 | 48% 1156-1258 (2414) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $10.05 | — | -$10.05 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.9 | $5.16 | +$0.26 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $5 | +$1.1 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 34.4¢ | $226.04 | — | -$226.04 | 42% 1520-2127 (3647) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $6.45 | — | -$6.45 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
Invested
$513.25
Value
$492.39
PnL
+$4
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.59
Value
$532.72
PnL
+$236.13
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$156.27
Value
$214.25
PnL
+$57.99
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
Invested
$115.33
Value
$97.22
PnL
-$1.09
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$99.14
Value
$54.5
PnL
+$2.22
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$55.43
Value
$37.94
PnL
-$14.99
Record
50%
469-472 (941)
Invested
$28.29
Value
$33.91
PnL
+$7.58
Record
43%
1133-1518 (2651)
Invested
$19.98
Value
—
PnL
-$19.98
Record
48%
1156-1258 (2414)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$10.05
Value
—
PnL
-$10.05
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$0.26
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.1
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$226.04
Value
—
PnL
-$226.04
Record
42%
1520-2127 (3647)
Invested
$6.45
Value
—
PnL
-$6.45
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $532.72
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $214.25
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $54.5
aswfadq1555
Down — $37.94
13897651
Down — $33.91
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
CTRUp — $0