Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 100¢ · $711 held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

Total Value

$711.06

Combined PnL

-$69.92

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 100¢

+90% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$652.01

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$35.69

Up6 traders

Total Value$59.05

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$105.61

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.1¢	$503.7	$503.97	+$2.85	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$16.24	$40.42	+$24.18	44% 1926-2494 (4420)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 90.1¢	$36.05	$38.6	+$2.55	52% 2078-1939 (4017)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$25.96	$28.07	+$2.1	50% 467-468 (935)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$33.95	$24.68	-$6.95	43% 1127-1510 (2637)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$41.46	$23.23	-$5.31	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$15.83	$16.15	+$0.31	60% 3496-2347 (5843)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 21¢	$2.52	$11.99	+$9.47	42% 1499-2108 (3607)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$9.23	$9.62	+$0.38	50% 734-736 (1470)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.5	-$0.1	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$5.88	$5.73	-$0.15	49% 2245-2302 (4547)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$84.67	$0.09	-$84.58	58% 3554-2561 (6115)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$14.7	$0.02	-$14.68	47% 2004-2262 (4266)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$503.7

Value

$503.97

PnL

+$2.85

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$16.24

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$24.18

Record

44%

1926-2494 (4420)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$36.05

Value

$38.6

PnL

+$2.55

Record

52%

2078-1939 (4017)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$25.96

Value

$28.07

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

467-468 (935)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$33.95

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$6.95

Record

43%

1127-1510 (2637)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$41.46

Value

$23.23

PnL

-$5.31

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$0.31

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$2.52

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$9.47

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

734-736 (1470)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$84.67

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$84.58

Record

58%

3554-2561 (6115)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.68

Record

47%

2004-2262 (4266)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.