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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 50%

Total Value

$547.41

Combined PnL

-$523.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$860.7

Up8 traders

Total Value$547.41

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$337.12

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$520.8	—	-$495.75	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 22.2¢	$54.89	$247	+$192.11	42% 1499-2108 (3607)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$75.27	—	-$75.27	43% 1127-1510 (2637)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$35.45	$60	+$24.55	50% 467-468 (935)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$18.03	$52.41	+$34.38	44% 1926-2494 (4420)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 34¢	$17	$50	+$33	47% 2004-2262 (4266)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$49	$50	+$1	98% 3400-72 (3472)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 37¢	$8.01	$20	+$11.99	47% 1960-2212 (4172)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 33.9¢	$12.9	$38	+$25.1	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15	$30	+$15	50% 734-736 (1470)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$7.8	—	-$7.8	60% 3496-2347 (5843)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$64.28	—	-$7.24	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$5.6	—	-$5.6	52% 2078-1939 (4017)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 84¢	$3.86	—	-$3.86	48% 1943-2144 (4087)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 65.5¢	$261.93	—	-$261.93	58% 3554-2561 (6115)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.25	—	-$3.25	71% 1474-604 (2078)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$520.8

Value

—

PnL

-$495.75

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$54.89

Value

$247

PnL

+$192.11

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$75.27

Value

—

PnL

-$75.27

Record

43%

1127-1510 (2637)

aswfadq1555<$100

Invested

$35.45

Value

$60

PnL

+$24.55

Record

50%

467-468 (935)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$18.03

Value

$52.41

PnL

+$34.38

Record

44%

1926-2494 (4420)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$50

PnL

+$33

Record

47%

2004-2262 (4266)

Invested

$49

Value

$50

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

3400-72 (3472)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.01

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.99

Record

47%

1960-2212 (4172)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$38

PnL

+$25.1

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

Invested

$15

Value

$30

PnL

+$15

Record

50%

734-736 (1470)

Invested

$7.8

Value

—

PnL

-$7.8

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$64.28

Value

—

PnL

-$7.24

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

—

PnL

-$5.6

Record

52%

2078-1939 (4017)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

—

PnL

-$3.86

Record

48%

1943-2144 (4087)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$261.93

Value

—

PnL

-$261.93

Record

58%

3554-2561 (6115)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

—

PnL

-$3.25

Record

71%

1474-604 (2078)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe97dd6f7...34dead

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794658500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $247

13897651

Down — $0

aswfadq1555

Up — $60

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $52.41

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $50

hoodquant

Up — $50

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $20

uninformedfloww

Up — $38

PBot-6

Up — $30

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