Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$48.82

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL+$560.08

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,771

Combined PnL-$511.26

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 19.1¢	$143.48	$751.62	+$608.14	41% 1475-2082 (3557)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 77.2¢	$1.0K	$671.02	-$294.88	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$521.47	$498.53	-$5.13	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$244.7	$378.68	+$129.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$256.9	$119.85	-$134.85
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 46.4¢	$438.34	$250.75	-$149.57	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 88.4¢	$252.05	$195.97	-$50.62	58% 3542-2552 (6094)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 89.4¢	$117.16	$58.59	-$3.15	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 35¢	$35.02	$54.85	+$19.83	43% 1118-1501 (2619)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$72.26	$48.9	-$14.41	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$62.2	$45.03	-$12.77	50% 461-464 (925)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$37.05	$25.94	-$11.11	60% 3476-2322 (5798)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$7.8	$11.4	+$3.6	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$8.1	$11.4	+$3.3	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$7.57	$11.06	+$3.49	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$9.42	$9.71	+$0.29	50% 725-729 (1454)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$44.1	$7.35	-$36.75	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 86¢	$16.58	$0.01	-$16.57	44% 1915-2467 (4382)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$143.48

Value

$751.62

PnL

+$608.14

Record

41%

1475-2082 (3557)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$1,023.12

Value

$671.02

PnL

-$294.88

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$521.47

Value

$498.53

PnL

-$5.13

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$244.749.4¢+$129.73

Down$256.950.4¢-$134.85

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$438.34

Value

$250.75

PnL

-$149.57

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$252.05

Value

$195.97

PnL

-$50.62

Record

58%

3542-2552 (6094)

ply-pm2

Invested

$117.16

Value

$58.59

PnL

-$3.15

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

13897651<$100

Invested

$35.02

Value

$54.85

PnL

+$19.83

Record

43%

1118-1501 (2619)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$72.26

Value

$48.9

PnL

-$14.41

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.2

Value

$45.03

PnL

-$12.77

Record

50%

461-464 (925)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.05

Value

$25.94

PnL

-$11.11

Record

60%

3476-2322 (5798)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.8

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.1

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$3.3

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.57

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$3.49

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$9.42

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

725-729 (1454)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.1

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$36.75

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.58

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$16.57

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.