Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$4.13

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 99.5¢

+43% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$995.21

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL-$29.07

Down6 traders

Total Value$833.66

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL+$33.2

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.1¢	$633.57	$570.35	-$63.22	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$526.04	$496.29	-$8.62	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 27.5¢	$170.04	$242.36	+$170.03	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$141.57	$142.29	+$0.71	98% 3348-72 (3420)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 82.3¢	$91.35	$107.31	+$16.36	58% 3538-2545 (6083)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$46.04	$47.52	+$1.48	42% 1107-1498 (2605)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$22.09	$43.4	+$21.31	47% 1944-2175 (4119)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$67.1	$40.85	-$2.14	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 26.1¢	$25.39	$40.22	+$14.83	50% 460-459 (919)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$48.41	$34.51	-$11.25	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 49¢	$17.15	$17.5	+$0.35	48% 1139-1227 (2366)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$17.85	$17.5	-$0.35	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.4	$15	+$0.6	50% 719-722 (1441)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$42.87	$11.01	-$4.51	54% 2156-1847 (4003)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Downavg 24.1¢	$134.22	$2.78	-$131.44	42% 1466-2059 (3525)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$633.57

Value

$570.35

PnL

-$63.22

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$526.04

Value

$496.29

PnL

-$8.62

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$170.04

Value

$242.36

PnL

+$170.03

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

hoodquant

Invested

$141.57

Value

$142.29

PnL

+$0.71

Record

98%

3348-72 (3420)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$91.35

Value

$107.31

PnL

+$16.36

Record

58%

3538-2545 (6083)

13897651<$100

Invested

$46.04

Value

$47.52

PnL

+$1.48

Record

42%

1107-1498 (2605)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$22.09

Value

$43.4

PnL

+$21.31

Record

47%

1944-2175 (4119)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$67.1

Value

$40.85

PnL

-$2.14

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.39

Value

$40.22

PnL

+$14.83

Record

50%

460-459 (919)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.41

Value

$34.51

PnL

-$11.25

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$17.15

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

1139-1227 (2366)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.85

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

719-722 (1441)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$42.87

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$4.51

Record

54%

2156-1847 (4003)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Down

Invested

$134.22

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$131.44

Record

42%

1466-2059 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.