Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 23%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$262.26
Smart Money Signal
3 of 14 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $524.09 | $494 | -$9.77 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.1¢ | $252.33 | $494 | +$240 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.99 | — | -$249.77 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $232.3 | $253.68 | +$63.91 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 43.6¢ | $361.69 | — | -$299.44 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $161.39 | $163.02 | +$1.63 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $72.6 | $176.26 | +$103.66 | 42% 1466-2059 (3525) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $86.79 | $80.78 | -$2 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $54.55 | $76.25 | +$21.7 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $62.41 | $55 | -$7.41 | 42% 1107-1498 (2605) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $23.12 | $46.59 | +$23.47 | 50% 460-459 (919) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 39.5¢ | $179.97 | — | -$167.82 | 58% 3538-2545 (6083) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $30 | +$13.8 | 47% 1977-2239 (4216) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $9.45 | $15 | +$5.55 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $13.6 | — | -$11.14 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 47% 1944-2175 (4119) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $38.61 | — | -$9.37 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
Invested
$524.09
Value
$494
PnL
-$9.77
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$232.3
Value
$253.68
PnL
+$63.91
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$361.69
Value
—
PnL
-$299.44
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Invested
$161.39
Value
$163.02
PnL
+$1.63
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Invested
$72.6
Value
$176.26
PnL
+$103.66
Record
42%
1466-2059 (3525)
Invested
$86.79
Value
$80.78
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
ohioism<$100Invested
$54.55
Value
$76.25
PnL
+$21.7
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$62.41
Value
$55
PnL
-$7.41
Record
42%
1107-1498 (2605)
Invested
$23.12
Value
$46.59
PnL
+$23.47
Record
50%
460-459 (919)
Invested
$179.97
Value
—
PnL
-$167.82
Record
58%
3538-2545 (6083)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.8
Record
47%
1977-2239 (4216)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.55
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$11.14
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
47%
1944-2175 (4119)
Invested
$38.61
Value
—
PnL
-$9.37
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $253.68
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $163.02
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $176.26
ply-pm2
Up — $80.78
ohioism
Up — $76.25
13897651
Up — $55
aswfadq1555
Up — $46.59
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRDown — $0