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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 36%

Total Value

$726.43

Combined PnL

-$603.18

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,243
Combined PnL-$793.91
Down10 traders
Total Value$726.43
Total Shares726
Combined PnL+$190.73
Up — 33%Down — 67%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$505.93

Value

—

PnL

-$496.6

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down

Invested

$273.08

Value

$331.15

PnL

+$76.37

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down

Invested

$163.44

Value

$222

PnL

+$58.56

Record

58%

3538-2545 (6083)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$43.09

Value

$50.3

PnL

+$7.21

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Down

Invested

$26.76

Value

$49.74

PnL

+$22.98

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

AS
aswfadq1555<$100
Down

Invested

$18.2

Value

$24.76

PnL

+$6.56

Record

50%

460-459 (919)

Polkadot-Frog<$100
Down

Invested

$42.66

Value

$23

PnL

+$13.21

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$18.71

Value

—

PnL

-$18.71

Record

48%

1139-1227 (2366)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$76.26

Value

$10

PnL

-$2.01

Record

54%

2156-1847 (4003)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$8.51

Value

$13.51

PnL

+$5

Record

44%

1903-2453 (4356)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

50%

719-722 (1441)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Down

Invested

$3.48

Value

$1

PnL

+$2.42

Record

42%

1466-2059 (3525)

13
13897651<$100
Down

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.44

Record

42%

1107-1498 (2605)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR
Up

Invested

$269.6

Value

—

PnL

-$269.6

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

47%

1944-2175 (4119)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x9a118311...9fd187
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1794650400

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$496.6
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $331.15

+$76.37
0X

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $222

+$58.56
AA

aaa221

Down — $50.3

+$7.21
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $49.74

+$22.98
AS

aswfadq1555

Down — $24.76

+$6.56

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $23

+$13.21
PB

PBot-5

CTR

Up — $0

-$18.71
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $10

-$2.01

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $13.51

+$5
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