Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$906.5
-$38.31
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $230.56 | $226.22 | -$4.34 | 51% 2914-2831 (5745) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69¢ | $156.13 | $226.22 | +$70.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.1¢ | $74.43 | — | -$74.43 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 92.9¢ | $65.06 | $70 | +$4.94 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $28.54 | $30 | +$1.46 | 42% 1095-1493 (2588) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $11.3 | $26.28 | +$14.98 | 60% 3418-2292 (5710) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $9.25 | — | -$9.25 | 48% 1903-2089 (3992) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $34 | $10 | +$2 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $10.1 | — | -$10.1 | 50% 705-716 (1421) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $8.05 | — | -$3.05 | 58% 3530-2534 (6064) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $7.92 | $9 | +$1.08 | 50% 457-452 (909) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $5 | +$2.5 | 44% 1886-2437 (4323) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 47% 1924-2156 (4080) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $0.5 | — | -$0.5 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.6¢ | $34.37 | — | -$34.37 | 41% 1439-2039 (3478) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | 47% 1965-2218 (4183) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Both legs:
Invested
$230.56
Value
$226.22
PnL
-$4.34
Record
51%
2914-2831 (5745)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$65.06
Value
$70
PnL
+$4.94
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$28.54
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.46
Record
42%
1095-1493 (2588)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$26.28
PnL
+$14.98
Record
60%
3418-2292 (5710)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.25
Value
—
PnL
-$9.25
Record
48%
1903-2089 (3992)
Invested
$34
Value
$10
PnL
+$2
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
Invested
$10.1
Value
—
PnL
-$10.1
Record
50%
705-716 (1421)
Invested
$8.05
Value
—
PnL
-$3.05
Record
58%
3530-2534 (6064)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$9
PnL
+$1.08
Record
50%
457-452 (909)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
44%
1886-2437 (4323)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
47%
1924-2156 (4080)
Invested
$0.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
Invested
$34.37
Value
—
PnL
-$34.37
Record
41%
1439-2039 (3478)
Invested
$6.6
Value
—
PnL
-$6.6
Record
47%
1965-2218 (4183)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $70
13897651
Down — $30
hoodquant
Down — $30
aaa221
Down — $26.28
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $10
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRUp — $0