Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (43%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$114.68

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$585.01

Total Shares799

Combined PnL-$146.41

Down8 traders

Total Value$305.48

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$31.74

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 52.1¢	$677.13	$505.5	-$153.18	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$518.04	$499.64	+$6.08	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.4	$257.5	+$10.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$247.71	$242.14	-$4.72
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$102.96	$103.48	+$0.52	98% 3242-69 (3311)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 34.3¢	$107.63	$99.9	-$7.73	50% 448-445 (893)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$45.55	$73.66	+$28.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$62.09	$26.24	-$35.84
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 87¢	$80.94	$87.96	+$12.87	58% 3492-2495 (5987)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$59.74	$64.04	+$4.3	42% 1071-1482 (2553)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$48.8	$54.52	+$6.92	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 28¢	$7.02	$19.5	+$12.48	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$15.3	$14.88	-$0.43	44% 1860-2404 (4264)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$12.25	$11.85	-$0.4	48% 1870-2057 (3927)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$47.6	$11.11	-$0.41	54% 2104-1796 (3900)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$6.5	$6.13	-$0.38	47% 1939-2183 (4122)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$6.79	$5.57	-$1.22	47% 1893-2128 (4021)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.34	$2.21	-$0.13	50% 1696-1707 (3403)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.01	$2.19	+$0.18	50% 694-702 (1396)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$1.82	$1.57	+$4.2	41% 1393-1983 (3376)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$677.13

Value

$505.5

PnL

-$153.18

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$518.04

Value

$499.64

PnL

+$6.08

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Up$250.450.1¢+$10.8

Down$247.7149.6¢-$4.72

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$102.96

Value

$103.48

PnL

+$0.52

Record

98%

3242-69 (3311)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$107.63

Value

$99.9

PnL

-$7.73

Record

50%

448-445 (893)

Both legs:

Down$45.5552.9¢+$28.11

Up$62.0934.3¢-$35.84

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$80.94

Value

$87.96

PnL

+$12.87

Record

58%

3492-2495 (5987)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$59.74

Value

$64.04

PnL

+$4.3

Record

42%

1071-1482 (2553)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$48.8

Value

$54.52

PnL

+$6.92

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$7.02

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$12.48

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.43

Record

44%

1860-2404 (4264)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$12.25

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

1870-2057 (3927)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$47.6

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

2104-1796 (3900)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

47%

1939-2183 (4122)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$1.22

Record

47%

1893-2128 (4021)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1696-1707 (3403)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

694-702 (1396)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$4.2

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.