Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 100¢ · $976 held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$975.74

Combined PnL

$34.3

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$475.98

Total Shares470

Combined PnL+$46.49

Up5 traders

Total Value$4.84

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$12.19

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$501.77	$494.92	-$2.48	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$246.15	$371.69	+$125.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$251.38	$123.23	-$128.35
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.2¢	$280.54	$310.31	+$29.77	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$54.4	$50.35	-$4.05	42% 1063-1475 (2538)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$32.51	$50.01	+$20	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 90.4¢	$22.38	$21.03	-$0.59	50% 446-441 (887)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$20.26	$20.36	+$0.1	98% 3197-68 (3265)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 87¢	$13.05	$14.93	+$1.88	48% 1860-2039 (3899)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81¢	$27.31	$9	-$0.62	54% 2087-1785 (3872)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.73	+$0.58	44% 1849-2382 (4231)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.93	-$0.09	41% 1381-1964 (3345)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.1	$0.92	-$0.18	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.23	-$0.02	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 20.8¢	$12.5	$0.03	-$12.47	58% 3466-2465 (5931)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$501.77

Value

$494.92

PnL

-$2.48

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Down$246.1550¢+$125.86

Up$251.3850¢-$128.35

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$280.54

Value

$310.31

PnL

+$29.77

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$54.4

Value

$50.35

PnL

-$4.05

Record

42%

1063-1475 (2538)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$32.51

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$20

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$22.38

Value

$21.03

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

446-441 (887)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$20.26

Value

$20.36

PnL

+$0.1

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$13.05

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$1.88

Record

48%

1860-2039 (3899)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$27.31

Value

PnL

-$0.62

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

44%

1849-2382 (4231)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

41%

1381-1964 (3345)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$12.47

Record

58%

3466-2465 (5931)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.