Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$59.23
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $518.32 | $493.07 | -$1.09 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $412.06 | $388.2 | -$23.86 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.7¢ | $212.22 | $388.2 | +$175.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.2¢ | $199.83 | — | -$199.83 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $255.62 | $259.63 | +$4.01 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $101.05 | $99.4 | -$1.65 | 42% 1063-1475 (2538) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 40.2¢ | $43.05 | $76.05 | +$33 | 50% 446-441 (887) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $27.95 | $50.37 | +$22.42 | 44% 1849-2382 (4231) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $58.5 | $33.1 | +$4.27 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $31.11 | — | -$16.71 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $12.7 | $10 | +$12.15 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.2¢ | $6.55 | — | -$6.55 | 47% 1925-2172 (4097) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $6 | +$1.98 | 41% 1381-1964 (3345) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $2.1 | $2.91 | +$0.81 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $5.4 | — | -$5.4 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 31.1¢ | $106.41 | — | -$106.41 | 58% 3466-2465 (5931) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 1240-2064 (3304) |
Invested
$518.32
Value
$493.07
PnL
-$1.09
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$412.06
Value
$388.2
PnL
-$23.86
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
Both legs:
Invested
$255.62
Value
$259.63
PnL
+$4.01
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$101.05
Value
$99.4
PnL
-$1.65
Record
42%
1063-1475 (2538)
Invested
$43.05
Value
$76.05
PnL
+$33
Record
50%
446-441 (887)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$27.95
Value
$50.37
PnL
+$22.42
Record
44%
1849-2382 (4231)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$33.1
PnL
+$4.27
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
Invested
$31.11
Value
—
PnL
-$16.71
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$12.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$12.15
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$6.55
Value
—
PnL
-$6.55
Record
47%
1925-2172 (4097)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.98
Record
41%
1381-1964 (3345)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$0.81
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.4
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Invested
$106.41
Value
—
PnL
-$106.41
Record
58%
3466-2465 (5931)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1240-2064 (3304)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $493.07
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $259.63
13897651
Down — $99.4
aswfadq1555
Down — $76.05
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $50.37
ply-pm2
Down — $33.1
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $10
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0