Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$17.97

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 86.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$464.35

Total Shares546

Combined PnL+$20.71

Up5 traders

Total Value$142.82

Total Shares716

Combined PnL-$38.67

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$508.1	$505.7	-$0.5	55% 3061-2517 (5578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$258.1	$400.35	+$142.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$105.35	-$142.75
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.5¢	$203.57	$178.24	-$18.33	51% 2824-2718 (5542)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 79.2¢	$109.33	$99.26	-$6.35	50% 438-439 (877)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 20.5¢	$125.4	$94.86	-$30.54	41% 1354-1943 (3297)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$35.34	$51.99	+$16.65	60% 3320-2225 (5545)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$48.85	$40.69	-$2.53	54% 2076-1762 (3838)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$15.35	$36.04	+$20.69	59% 3430-2414 (5844)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$32.85	$30.65	-$2.2	51% 1947-1837 (3784)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 42¢	$14.7	$27.48	+$12.78	48% 1095-1166 (2261)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$29	$25	-$4	50% 1678-1678 (3356)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$10.27	$9.58	-$0.69	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 37.5¢	$11.92	$8.38	-$3.54	42% 1054-1466 (2520)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	50% 678-686 (1364)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$508.1

Value

$505.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

3061-2517 (5578)

Both legs:

Down$258.150.6¢+$142.25

Up$24550¢-$142.75

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$203.57

Value

$178.24

PnL

-$18.33

Record

51%

2824-2718 (5542)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$109.33

Value

$99.26

PnL

-$6.35

Record

50%

438-439 (877)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$125.4

Value

$94.86

PnL

-$30.54

Record

41%

1354-1943 (3297)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$35.34

Value

$51.99

PnL

+$16.65

Record

60%

3320-2225 (5545)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$48.85

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$2.53

Record

54%

2076-1762 (3838)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$15.35

Value

$36.04

PnL

+$20.69

Record

59%

3430-2414 (5844)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$32.85

Value

$30.65

PnL

-$2.2

Record

51%

1947-1837 (3784)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$14.7

Value

$27.48

PnL

+$12.78

Record

48%

1095-1166 (2261)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$25

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

1678-1678 (3356)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$10.27

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.69

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$3.54

Record

42%

1054-1466 (2520)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

678-686 (1364)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.3%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.