Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up83¢Down17¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$0.28

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up83%

Down18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$91.57

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$2.34

Down2 traders

Total Value$66.07

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$2.06

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$1.0K	$876.95	-$129.75	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$569.81	$640.73	+$70.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$436.88	$236.22	-$200.66
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$511.64	$493.53	-$1.22	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$247.16	$374.85	+$130.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$251.9	$118.68	-$132.08
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 36¢	$228.38	$269.11	+$40.73	50% 436-435 (871)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$111.14	$179.58	+$68.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$117.24	$89.53	-$27.71
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$100.83	$71.28	-$29.56	60% 3298-2213 (5511)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.8¢	$47.43	$50.28	+$2.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$53.4	$21	-$32.4
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$51.09	$58.61	+$7.52	42% 1045-1461 (2506)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$53.63	$51.07	-$2.56	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$50.53	$23.95	-$3.59	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$14.5	$15	+$0.5	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 75¢	$3.59	$3.56	-$0.02	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 60¢	$3	$3.47	+$0.47	47% 1854-2076 (3930)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$4.02	$1.98	-$2.04	41% 1336-1928 (3264)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,006.69

Value

$876.95

PnL

-$129.75

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

Both legs:

Up$569.8163.6¢+$70.91

Down$436.8852.7¢-$200.66

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$511.64

Value

$493.53

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Up$247.1650.4¢+$130.85

Down$251.949.9¢-$132.08

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$228.38

Value

$269.11

PnL

+$40.73

Record

50%

436-435 (871)

Both legs:

Up$111.1444.9¢+$68.44

Down$117.2436¢-$27.71

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.83

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$29.56

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

Both legs:

Up$47.4377.8¢+$2.84

Down$53.444.5¢-$32.4

13897651<$100

Invested

$51.09

Value

$58.61

PnL

+$7.52

Record

42%

1045-1461 (2506)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.63

Value

$51.07

PnL

-$2.56

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$50.53

Value

$23.95

PnL

-$3.59

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.5

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

47%

1854-2076 (3930)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$2.04

Record

41%

1336-1928 (3264)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.