Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 38¢ · $680 held · ends Nov 13

Up38¢Down62¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$680.05

Combined PnL

$3.65

Research grade

NeutralUp at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up38%

Down63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$46.16

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$2.64

Up4 traders

Total Value$51.36

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$1.01

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$505.14	$502.84	+$0.6	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$255.14	$377.89	+$122.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$124.95	-$122.15
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$88.56	$79.69	+$0.23	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$51.75	$42.28	-$9.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$28.39	$37.42	+$9.71
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$33.32	$36.16	+$2.84	59% 3299-2310 (5609)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$28.66	$24.92	+$1.84	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$22.48	$18	-$1.9	41% 966-1381 (2347)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.2	$10	-$0.2	47% 1726-1951 (3677)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$5.56	$5.93	+$0.37	50% 395-401 (796)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.51	+$0.7	40% 1121-1688 (2809)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.14

Value

$502.84

PnL

+$0.6

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Up$255.1450.3¢+$122.75

Down$24550¢-$122.15

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$88.56

Value

$79.69

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

Both legs:

Up$51.7554.5¢-$9.48

Down$28.3942.1¢+$9.71

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$33.32

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$2.84

Record

59%

3299-2310 (5609)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$24.92

PnL

+$1.84

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$22.48

Value

$18

PnL

-$1.9

Record

41%

966-1381 (2347)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

1726-1951 (3677)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

395-401 (796)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.7

Record

40%

1121-1688 (2809)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$149.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

249.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.