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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$686.78

Combined PnL

-$358.78

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares938

Combined PnL-$385.15

Down6 traders

Total Value$196.78

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$26.38

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$504.68	$490	-$9.18	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$254.68	—	-$254.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$245.5
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 34.6¢	$370.09	—	-$341.34	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$52.23	$72	+$19.77	50% 395-401 (796)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$61.36	$67	+$10.64	59% 3299-2310 (5609)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$25.11	$22.78	-$1.12	41% 966-1381 (2347)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$17.7	$20	+$2.3	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	48% 1198-1305 (2503)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 73¢	$43.91	$10	-$5.26	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 2839-60 (2899)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$4.94	—	+$0.01	40% 1121-1688 (2809)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$2.75	—	-$2.75	47% 1691-1909 (3600)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 1131-1839 (2970)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$27.83	—	-$27.83	50% 1904-1877 (3781)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$504.68

Value

$490

PnL

-$9.18

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Up$254.6849.9¢-$254.68

Down$24550¢+$245.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$370.09

Value

—

PnL

-$341.34

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

aswfadq1555<$100

Invested

$52.23

Value

$72

PnL

+$19.77

Record

50%

395-401 (796)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$61.36

Value

$67

PnL

+$10.64

Record

59%

3299-2310 (5609)

Invested

$25.11

Value

$22.78

PnL

-$1.12

Record

41%

966-1381 (2347)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.3

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

48%

1198-1305 (2503)

Invested

$43.91

Value

$10

PnL

-$5.26

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

2839-60 (2899)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

—

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

1121-1688 (2809)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

—

PnL

-$2.75

Record

47%

1691-1909 (3600)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1131-1839 (2970)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

—

PnL

-$27.83

Record

50%

1904-1877 (3781)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5543325a...64bc13

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794591900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

aswfadq1555

Down — $72

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $67

13897651

Down — $22.78

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $20

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $10

hoodquant

Down — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

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