Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 69%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$55.82 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 51.9¢ | $979.2 | — | -$806.88 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $518.88 | $499.48 | +$7.04 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.9¢ | $244.68 | — | -$243.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.54 | $499.48 | +$250.85 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $150.11 | $153 | +$2.89 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $128.8 | $179.31 | +$50.51 | 49% 385-395 (780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $80.98 | $179.31 | +$98.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $47.81 | — | -$47.81 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $149.33 | $125.97 | +$2.44 | 54% 1831-1588 (3419) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $46.31 | $75 | +$31.29 | 48% 1655-1778 (3433) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $91.91 | — | -$86.61 | 41% 943-1372 (2315) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $47.5 | $100 | +$52.5 | 51% 609-588 (1197) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $25.08 | $32.8 | +$13.21 | 47% 1686-1913 (3599) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $27.72 | $27.73 | +$0.01 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $22.39 | $43.48 | +$21.09 | 44% 1633-2119 (3752) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $29.25 | — | -$23.35 | 47% 1647-1881 (3528) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $10.74 | $21 | +$10.26 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.4¢ | $10.89 | — | -$10.89 | 47% 1170-1297 (2467) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $5.29 | $5.27 | -$0.02 | 49% 1967-2021 (3988) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $5 | +$1.45 | 72% 1307-501 (1808) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 36.3¢ | $161.94 | — | -$161.94 | 59% 3281-2298 (5579) |
Invested
$1,423.68
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$55.82
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$979.2
Value
—
PnL
-$806.88
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$518.88
Value
$499.48
PnL
+$7.04
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.11
Value
$153
PnL
+$2.89
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$128.8
Value
$179.31
PnL
+$50.51
Record
49%
385-395 (780)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.33
Value
$125.97
PnL
+$2.44
Record
54%
1831-1588 (3419)
ohioism<$100Invested
$46.31
Value
$75
PnL
+$31.29
Record
48%
1655-1778 (3433)
Invested
$91.91
Value
—
PnL
-$86.61
Record
41%
943-1372 (2315)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$100
PnL
+$52.5
Record
51%
609-588 (1197)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$32.8
PnL
+$13.21
Record
47%
1686-1913 (3599)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$27.72
Value
$27.73
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$22.39
Value
$43.48
PnL
+$21.09
Record
44%
1633-2119 (3752)
Invested
$29.25
Value
—
PnL
-$23.35
Record
47%
1647-1881 (3528)
Invested
$10.74
Value
$21
PnL
+$10.26
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$10.89
Value
—
PnL
-$10.89
Record
47%
1170-1297 (2467)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$5.27
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
1967-2021 (3988)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
72%
1307-501 (1808)
Invested
$161.94
Value
—
PnL
-$161.94
Record
59%
3281-2298 (5579)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.4K
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $153
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $125.97
ohioism
Down — $75
13897651
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $100
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $32.8