Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$121.62

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,358

Combined PnL+$138.75

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.86

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$17.13

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$550	+$50	—
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$550	+$50	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$171.27	$172.91	+$1.64	98% 2496-50 (2546)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$47.11	$54.31	+$7.2	60% 2636-1762 (4398)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$47.06	$53.97	+$6.91	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$18.55	$27.94	+$9.39	39% 815-1272 (2087)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$10.3	$18.6	+$8.3	50% 500-496 (996)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15	$16.5	+$1.5	52% 1513-1391 (2904)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 53¢	$4.26	$8.05	+$3.79	50% 333-333 (666)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$2.7	$1.05	-$1.65	47% 1014-1146 (2160)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.64	$0.42	-$2.22	38% 813-1313 (2126)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.35	+$0.3	38% 979-1602 (2581)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$13.6	$0.04	-$13.56	51% 1529-1484 (3013)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$550

PnL

+$50

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$550

PnL

+$50

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$171.27

Value

$172.91

PnL

+$1.64

Record

98%

2496-50 (2546)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$47.11

Value

$54.31

PnL

+$7.2

Record

60%

2636-1762 (4398)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$47.06

Value

$53.97

PnL

+$6.91

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$18.55

Value

$27.94

PnL

+$9.39

Record

39%

815-1272 (2087)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$10.3

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$8.3

Record

50%

500-496 (996)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$4.26

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$3.79

Record

50%

333-333 (666)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.65

Record

47%

1014-1146 (2160)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$2.22

Record

38%

813-1313 (2126)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.3

Record

38%

979-1602 (2581)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$13.56

Record

51%

1529-1484 (3013)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.