Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (72%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$173.19

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,270

Combined PnL-$179.57

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,351

Combined PnL+$6.38

Up — 28%Down — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 88.9¢	$410.65	$459.93	+$49.27	50% 2029-2035 (4064)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 83.1¢	$477.36	$399.04	-$36.25	51% 1497-1460 (2957)
AA aaa221	Downavg 90.8¢	$117.74	$100.59	-$6.28	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 82¢	$89.97	$95.87	+$7.04	50% 323-327 (650)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$52.09	$57.28	+$5.19	47% 995-1129 (2124)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$39.09	$39.34	+$0.26	98% 2447-49 (2496)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$76.2	$37.58	-$20.85	46% 1383-1602 (2985)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$37.88	$36.27	-$1.61	39% 793-1263 (2056)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 97¢	$32.4	$30	-$2.4	47% 1444-1636 (3080)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$25.65	$29.88	+$4.23	73% 1126-414 (1540)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$21.2	$28.53	+$7.32	48% 1394-1530 (2924)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 13.1¢	$75.71	$18.72	-$26.98	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 90¢	$5.76	$5.98	+$0.22	49% 1644-1742 (3386)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.68	+$0.23	44% 1391-1787 (3178)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$46.27	$2.93	-$2.32	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 17.2¢	$152.03	$1.77	-$150.26	38% 771-1268 (2039)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$410.65

Value

$459.93

PnL

+$49.27

Record

50%

2029-2035 (4064)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$477.36

Value

$399.04

PnL

-$36.25

Record

51%

1497-1460 (2957)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$117.74

Value

$100.59

PnL

-$6.28

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$89.97

Value

$95.87

PnL

+$7.04

Record

50%

323-327 (650)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$52.09

Value

$57.28

PnL

+$5.19

Record

47%

995-1129 (2124)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$39.09

Value

$39.34

PnL

+$0.26

Record

98%

2447-49 (2496)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$76.2

Value

$37.58

PnL

-$20.85

Record

46%

1383-1602 (2985)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$37.88

Value

$36.27

PnL

-$1.61

Record

39%

793-1263 (2056)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$32.4

Value

$30

PnL

-$2.4

Record

47%

1444-1636 (3080)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$25.65

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$4.23

Record

73%

1126-414 (1540)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$21.2

Value

$28.53

PnL

+$7.32

Record

48%

1394-1530 (2924)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$75.71

Value

$18.72

PnL

-$26.98

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

1644-1742 (3386)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.23

Record

44%

1391-1787 (3178)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$46.27

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$2.32

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$152.03

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$150.26

Record

38%

771-1268 (2039)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.