Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Up 36%
1 arb excluded
$356.41
-$973.2
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $103.52 | $110.72 | +$7.2 | 39% 793-1263 (2056) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $47.62 | $110.72 | +$63.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.2¢ | $55.9 | — | -$55.9 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $60.08 | $44.76 | -$15.32 | 59% 3030-2107 (5137) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $30.27 | $38.12 | +$7.85 | 60% 2584-1729 (4313) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $82.91 | $25 | +$12.89 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $16.74 | $31.07 | +$14.33 | 50% 323-327 (650) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $17.8 | $40 | +$22.2 | 47% 1444-1636 (3080) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $21.26 | — | -$21.26 | 48% 818-882 (1700) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $20.7 | — | -$20.7 | 46% 1383-1602 (2985) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $16.93 | $22.27 | +$5.34 | 48% 1394-1530 (2924) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $14.9 | $29.8 | +$14.9 | 44% 1391-1787 (3178) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $3.1 | $9.68 | +$6.58 | 73% 1126-414 (1540) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 953-1575 (2528) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$103.52
Value
$110.72
PnL
+$7.2
Record
39%
793-1263 (2056)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.08
Value
$44.76
PnL
-$15.32
Record
59%
3030-2107 (5137)
Invested
$30.27
Value
$38.12
PnL
+$7.85
Record
60%
2584-1729 (4313)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$82.91
Value
$25
PnL
+$12.89
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$16.74
Value
$31.07
PnL
+$14.33
Record
50%
323-327 (650)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$22.2
Record
47%
1444-1636 (3080)
Invested
$21.26
Value
—
PnL
-$21.26
Record
48%
818-882 (1700)
Invested
$20.7
Value
—
PnL
-$20.7
Record
46%
1383-1602 (2985)
ohioism<$100Invested
$16.93
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$5.34
Record
48%
1394-1530 (2924)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$14.9
Value
$29.8
PnL
+$14.9
Record
44%
1391-1787 (3178)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$9.68
PnL
+$6.58
Record
73%
1126-414 (1540)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
953-1575 (2528)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $44.76
aaa221
Down — $38.12
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $25
aswfadq1555
Down — $31.07
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $40
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0