Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (93%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 7.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up8¢Down92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.18

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 7.5¢

-84% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up8%

Down93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL-$21.1

Down4 traders

Total Value$66.69

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$8.92

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$35.95	$38.54	+$2.59	49% 316-327 (643)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 38.5¢	$11.33	$16.56	+$5.23	47% 1428-1621 (3049)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$14.56	$13.84	-$0.72	39% 787-1252 (2039)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 45¢	$6.75	$7.27	+$0.52	44% 1381-1765 (3146)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$13.75	$4.69	-$9.06	50% 1465-1436 (2901)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 42¢	$3.74	$4.32	+$0.58	48% 1377-1513 (2890)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$23.72	$4.3	-$11.42	59% 3015-2097 (5112)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$2.28	$2.49	+$0.21	38% 748-1242 (1990)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 27.8¢	$2.5	$2.39	-$0.11	60% 2556-1710 (4266)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$35.95

Value

$38.54

PnL

+$2.59

Record

49%

316-327 (643)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.33

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$5.23

Record

47%

1428-1621 (3049)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$13.84

PnL

-$0.72

Record

39%

787-1252 (2039)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0.52

Record

44%

1381-1765 (3146)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$13.75

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$9.06

Record

50%

1465-1436 (2901)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

1377-1513 (2890)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$23.72

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$11.42

Record

59%

3015-2097 (5112)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.21

Record

38%

748-1242 (1990)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0.11

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.0%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1005.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

1105.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.