Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

Total Value

$718.63

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,732

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up6 traders

Total Value$718.63

Total Shares719

Combined PnL+$103.5

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.7¢	$381.73	$337.39	-$44.34	50% 1992-1999 (3991)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 60.3¢	$166.39	$276	+$109.61	59% 3015-2097 (5112)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$69.04	—	-$69.04	39% 787-1252 (2039)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$60.93	$45.03	-$3.45	54% 1694-1445 (3139)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 39.2¢	$32.66	—	-$30.06	49% 316-327 (643)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 16¢	$22.8	$33.21	+$28.97	60% 2556-1710 (4266)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 48¢	$36.05	$15	+$3.95	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$47.4	—	-$27	48% 1377-1513 (2890)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 27¢	$3.24	$12	+$8.76	38% 748-1242 (1990)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 77¢	$268.88	—	-$268.88	50% 1465-1436 (2901)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$27.3	—	-$27.3	47% 1428-1621 (3049)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$9.6	—	-$9.6	46% 1368-1585 (2953)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$14.4	—	-$14.4	44% 1381-1765 (3146)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$381.73

Value

$337.39

PnL

-$44.34

Record

50%

1992-1999 (3991)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$166.39

Value

$276

PnL

+$109.61

Record

59%

3015-2097 (5112)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$69.04

Value

—

PnL

-$69.04

Record

39%

787-1252 (2039)

Invested

$60.93

Value

$45.03

PnL

-$3.45

Record

54%

1694-1445 (3139)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$32.66

Value

—

PnL

-$30.06

Record

49%

316-327 (643)

Invested

$22.8

Value

$33.21

PnL

+$28.97

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$36.05

Value

$15

PnL

+$3.95

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$47.4

Value

—

PnL

-$27

Record

48%

1377-1513 (2890)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$12

PnL

+$8.76

Record

38%

748-1242 (1990)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$268.88

Value

—

PnL

-$268.88

Record

50%

1465-1436 (2901)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

—

PnL

-$27.3

Record

47%

1428-1621 (3049)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

—

PnL

-$9.6

Record

46%

1368-1585 (2953)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

—

PnL

-$14.4

Record

44%

1381-1765 (3146)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x978b9ed0...465201

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794523500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

QuantumPebble673

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $337.39

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $276

13897651

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $45.03

aswfadq1555

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $33.21

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $15

ohioism

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket