Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$125.89

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL+$143.45

Up3 traders

Total Value$17.87

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$17.56

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
wowitsamazing	Downavg 57.8¢	$172.2	$297.72	+$125.52	47% 117-134 (251)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69.4¢	$210.23	$271.56	+$61.32	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 80.9¢	$163.97	$202.49	+$38.52	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 91.5¢	$264.49	$169.98	-$80	59% 3010-2084 (5094)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$20.19	$22.46	+$2.45	39% 781-1243 (2024)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$8.2	$17.8	+$9.6	44% 1371-1749 (3120)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 92.6¢	$16.18	$16.51	+$0.33	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$16.76	$16.05	-$0.71	54% 1677-1430 (3107)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$43.16	$15	+$1.65	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 93¢	$15.21	$10.38	-$4.84	49% 313-326 (639)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$7.06	$6.28	-$0.78	48% 1603-1710 (3313)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$18.7	$0.04	-$18.66	48% 1361-1500 (2861)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$8.54	$0.03	-$8.5	37% 716-1225 (1941)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$172.2

Value

$297.72

PnL

+$125.52

Record

47%

117-134 (251)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$210.23

Value

$271.56

PnL

+$61.32

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$163.97

Value

$202.49

PnL

+$38.52

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$264.49

Value

$169.98

PnL

-$80

Record

59%

3010-2084 (5094)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$20.19

Value

$22.46

PnL

+$2.45

Record

39%

781-1243 (2024)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$17.8

PnL

+$9.6

Record

44%

1371-1749 (3120)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16.18

Value

$16.51

PnL

+$0.33

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$16.76

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$0.71

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$43.16

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.65

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$15.21

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$4.84

Record

49%

313-326 (639)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$7.06

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.78

Record

48%

1603-1710 (3313)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$18.66

Record

48%

1361-1500 (2861)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.5

Record

37%

716-1225 (1941)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.