Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
22
Up 68%
$830.94
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 22 top traders (68%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 90.1Β’ | $863.51 | $668.54 | -$194.97 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | β | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | β | -$500 | β |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100 | Downavg 51.4Β’ | $37.02 | $72.05 | +$35.03 | 23% 77-265 (342) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 40Β’ | $25.53 | $30.83 | +$12.86 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 82.2Β’ | $50.39 | $16.53 | -$3.85 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 56.2Β’ | $16 | $20 | +$4 | 49% 313-326 (639) |
![]() Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 77Β’ | $67.81 | $15 | -$4.66 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 47Β’ | $14.1 | β | -$14.1 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $14.95 | β | -$14.95 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 49Β’ | $9.7 | β | -$9.7 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.5Β’ | $27.75 | β | -$14.17 | 39% 781-1243 (2024) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.5Β’ | $17.7 | β | -$17.7 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 37Β’ | $15.37 | β | -$15.37 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 15Β’ | $3.75 | β | -$3.75 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49Β’ | $2.9 | β | -$2.9 | 50% 481-481 (962) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 22Β’ | $3.43 | β | -$3.43 | 47% 975-1099 (2074) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 44Β’ | $0.79 | β | -$0.79 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 31Β’ | $63.31 | β | -$63.31 | 59% 3010-2084 (5094) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 59.2Β’ | $108.39 | β | -$108.39 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 7.7Β’ | $5.35 | β | -$5.35 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
Invested
$863.51
Value
$668.54
PnL
-$194.97
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$500
Value
β
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
β
PnL
-$500
Record
β
Invested
$37.02
Value
$72.05
PnL
+$35.03
Record
23%
77-265 (342)
Invested
$25.53
Value
$30.83
PnL
+$12.86
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Invested
$50.39
Value
$16.53
PnL
-$3.85
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$16
Value
$20
PnL
+$4
Record
49%
313-326 (639)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$67.81
Value
$15
PnL
-$4.66
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$14.1
Value
β
PnL
-$14.1
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.95
Value
β
PnL
-$14.95
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
β
PnL
-$9.7
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$27.75
Value
β
PnL
-$14.17
Record
39%
781-1243 (2024)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$17.7
Value
β
PnL
-$17.7
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$15.37
Value
β
PnL
-$15.37
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$3.75
Value
β
PnL
-$3.75
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
Invested
$2.9
Value
β
PnL
-$2.9
Record
50%
481-481 (962)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$3.43
Value
β
PnL
-$3.43
Record
47%
975-1099 (2074)
Invested
$0.79
Value
β
PnL
-$0.79
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$63.31
Value
β
PnL
-$63.31
Record
59%
3010-2084 (5094)
Invested
$108.39
Value
β
PnL
-$108.39
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$5.35
Value
β
PnL
-$5.35
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $668.54
ByteBadger92
CTRUp β $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp β $0
0xdc27...afdd9a
Down β $72.05
aaa221
Down β $30.83
ply-pm2
Down β $16.53
aswfadq1555
Down β $20

Polkadot-Frog
Down β $15
bosona
CTRUp β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0