Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 60%
4 arb excluded
$2.3K
$19.4
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $775.77 | $637.05 | -$110.55 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 52.2¢ | $173.81 | $333 | +$159.19 | 59% 3010-2084 (5094) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $100.09 | $95.43 | -$4.66 | 39% 781-1243 (2024) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $50.64 | — | -$50.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.8¢ | $49.45 | $95.43 | +$45.98 | |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $105 | $59.66 | -$45.34 | 47% 117-134 (251) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.7¢ | $70.8 | — | -$70.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $34.2 | $59.66 | +$25.46 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $37.05 | — | -$37.05 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $34.8 | — | -$34.8 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $68.73 | $36.88 | +$0.01 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $29.21 | $59 | +$29.79 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 39.3¢ | $19.49 | $49.65 | +$30.16 | 49% 313-326 (639) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $26.97 | $28.65 | +$10.5 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.3¢ | $3.72 | — | -$3.72 | 47% 975-1099 (2074) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $0.99 | $1 | +$0.01 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $19.5 | — | -$19.5 | 74% 1116-401 (1517) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.5¢ | $2.34 | — | -$2.34 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
Invested
$775.77
Value
$637.05
PnL
-$110.55
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Both legs:
Invested
$173.81
Value
$333
PnL
+$159.19
Record
59%
3010-2084 (5094)
Invested
$100.09
Value
$95.43
PnL
-$4.66
Record
39%
781-1243 (2024)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$105
Value
$59.66
PnL
-$45.34
Record
47%
117-134 (251)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.05
Value
—
PnL
-$37.05
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$34.8
Value
—
PnL
-$34.8
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$68.73
Value
$36.88
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$29.21
Value
$59
PnL
+$29.79
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$19.49
Value
$49.65
PnL
+$30.16
Record
49%
313-326 (639)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$26.97
Value
$28.65
PnL
+$10.5
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$3.72
Value
—
PnL
-$3.72
Record
47%
975-1099 (2074)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
—
PnL
-$19.5
Record
74%
1116-401 (1517)
Invested
$2.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $637.05
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $333
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wowitsamazing
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $36.88
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $59