Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$14.68

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,974

Combined PnL+$31.47

Up5 traders

Total Value$499.23

Total Shares613

Combined PnL-$16.79

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.8¢	$768.95	$679.61	-$89.34	50% 1923-1911 (3834)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$510.13	$491.97	-$4.91	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 77.9¢	$310.84	$398.93	+$88.09	59% 2981-2065 (5046)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 58.9¢	$135.23	$144.06	+$17.64	49% 308-315 (623)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 65.9¢	$123.57	$107.41	-$1.86	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$60.74	$60.38	-$0.36	39% 768-1224 (1992)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 68¢	$34	$34.25	+$0.25	74% 1097-389 (1486)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$19.82	$20	+$8.68	47% 1374-1576 (2950)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$10.88	$10.94	+$0.05	98% 2353-45 (2398)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$15.07	$7.98	+$8.3	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$8	$2.6	-$5.4	44% 1344-1706 (3050)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$6.78	$1.82	-$4.96	47% 959-1076 (2035)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$1.5	$1.47	-$0.03	37% 679-1149 (1828)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 13.6¢	$2.85	$1.36	-$1.49	48% 1558-1684 (3242)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$768.95

Value

$679.61

PnL

-$89.34

Record

50%

1923-1911 (3834)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$510.13

Value

$491.97

PnL

-$4.91

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$310.84

Value

$398.93

PnL

+$88.09

Record

59%

2981-2065 (5046)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$135.23

Value

$144.06

PnL

+$17.64

Record

49%

308-315 (623)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$123.57

Value

$107.41

PnL

-$1.86

Record

54%

1637-1402 (3039)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$60.74

Value

$60.38

PnL

-$0.36

Record

39%

768-1224 (1992)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$34

Value

$34.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

74%

1097-389 (1486)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$19.82

Value

$20

PnL

+$8.68

Record

47%

1374-1576 (2950)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

2353-45 (2398)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$15.07

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$8.3

Record

53%

1432-1294 (2726)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

44%

1344-1706 (3050)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$6.78

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$4.96

Record

47%

959-1076 (2035)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

679-1149 (1828)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$1.49

Record

48%

1558-1684 (3242)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.