Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 53%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $488.75 | $508.61 | +$32.72 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $514.71 | $498.7 | +$2.48 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 44.3¢ | $238.07 | — | -$238.07 | 49% 308-315 (623) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 77.4¢ | $616.31 | — | -$589.33 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $253.08 | $178.08 | -$11.9 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $165.17 | $93.16 | -$72.01 | 59% 2981-2065 (5046) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.4¢ | $130.03 | — | -$130.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.7¢ | $35.14 | $93.16 | +$58.02 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.1¢ | $155.4 | $160 | +$4.6 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
13 13897651CTR | Upavg 43.6¢ | $131.18 | — | -$131.18 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 38.1¢ | $22.99 | $56.32 | +$33.33 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $16.55 | $24 | +$7.45 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $58.57 | — | -$49.27 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $12.76 | — | -$12.76 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $10.3 | — | -$10.3 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $30 | +$23.4 | 48% 859-914 (1773) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $30 | +$23.4 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $30 | +$23.4 | 48% 859-929 (1788) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $6.44 | — | -$6.44 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $20.05 | — | -$20.05 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $5.88 | — | -$5.88 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
Invested
$488.75
Value
$508.61
PnL
+$32.72
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$514.71
Value
$498.7
PnL
+$2.48
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$238.07
Value
—
PnL
-$238.07
Record
49%
308-315 (623)
Invested
$616.31
Value
—
PnL
-$589.33
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$253.08
Value
$178.08
PnL
-$11.9
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$165.17
Value
$93.16
PnL
-$72.01
Record
59%
2981-2065 (5046)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.4
Value
$160
PnL
+$4.6
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$131.18
Value
—
PnL
-$131.18
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$22.99
Value
$56.32
PnL
+$33.33
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$24
PnL
+$7.45
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$58.57
Value
—
PnL
-$49.27
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$12.76
Value
—
PnL
-$12.76
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$10.3
Value
—
PnL
-$10.3
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$23.4
Record
48%
859-914 (1773)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$23.4
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$23.4
Record
48%
859-929 (1788)
Invested
$6.44
Value
—
PnL
-$6.44
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$20.05
Value
—
PnL
-$20.05
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
Invested
$5.88
Value
—
PnL
-$5.88
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $508.61
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.7
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $178.08
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $160
13897651
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $56.32