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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 62%

Total Value

$66.16

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,032

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up5 traders

Total Value$66.16

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$6.11

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.1¢	$505.3	—	-$499	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$96.41	—	-$96.41	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$24.71	$25	+$0.29	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$76.54	—	-$76.54	50% 1923-1911 (3834)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$14.85	$15	+$0.15	98% 2353-45 (2398)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$12.78	—	-$12.78	48% 1221-1313 (2534)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$25.17	$15.17	+$1.25	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 52¢	$7.49	$5.99	+$1.77	39% 768-1224 (1992)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$6.39	—	-$6.39	49% 308-315 (623)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	+$2.65	59% 2981-2065 (5046)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$17.37	—	-$17.37	37% 679-1149 (1828)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$3.6	—	-$3.6	46% 1320-1541 (2861)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.3

Value

—

PnL

-$499

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$96.41

Value

—

PnL

-$96.41

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$24.71

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

1432-1294 (2726)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$76.54

Value

—

PnL

-$76.54

Record

50%

1923-1911 (3834)

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

98%

2353-45 (2398)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$12.78

Value

—

PnL

-$12.78

Record

48%

1221-1313 (2534)

Invested

$25.17

Value

$15.17

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

1637-1402 (3039)

Invested

$7.49

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$1.77

Record

39%

768-1224 (1992)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$6.39

Value

—

PnL

-$6.39

Record

49%

308-315 (623)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

59%

2981-2065 (5046)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$17.37

Value

—

PnL

-$17.37

Record

37%

679-1149 (1828)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

46%

1320-1541 (2861)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcedd7ab1...e7b7fb

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794512700

Traders in this Market

QuantumPebble673

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

38791873984189

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $15.17

13897651

Up — $5.99

aswfadq1555

Down — $0

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