Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up51¢Down49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$34.71

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 50.5¢

-16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up51%

Down50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,412

Combined PnL-$90.42

Down6 traders

Total Value$252.07

Total Shares502

Combined PnL+$55.71

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$507.66	$500	+$4	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$249.71	$252.5	+$4.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$248	$247.5	-$0.2
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.6¢	$398.19	$359.02	-$38.32	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 37.1¢	$148.62	$191.84	+$46.26	59% 2959-2052 (5011)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 69.1¢	$157.48	$155.19	-$2.3	49% 298-309 (607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.1¢	$136.46	$99.75	-$36.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.8¢	$21.02	$55.44	+$34.42
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 71¢	$156	$110.12	-$40.36	51% 1376-1320 (2696)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 64¢	$35.66	$31.19	-$4.47	48% 1314-1432 (2746)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$22.8	$28.41	+$5.61	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$23.14	$25.53	+$2.39	38% 746-1216 (1962)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$28.45	$20.2	-$8.25	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$49.51	$13.31	+$0.8	54% 1603-1367 (2970)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$1.98	$2.97	+$0.99	38% 657-1093 (1750)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2.2	$2.72	+$0.52	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47¢	$1.88	$2	+$0.12	48% 1191-1298 (2489)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 47¢	$0.89	$0.94	+$0.06	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$0.66	$0.59	-$0.07	60% 2431-1634 (4065)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.66

Value

$500

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Up$249.7149.9¢+$4.2

Down$24849.6¢-$0.2

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$398.19

Value

$359.02

PnL

-$38.32

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$148.62

Value

$191.84

PnL

+$46.26

Record

59%

2959-2052 (5011)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$157.48

Value

$155.19

PnL

-$2.3

Record

49%

298-309 (607)

Both legs:

Up$136.4669.1¢-$36.72

Down$21.0218.8¢+$34.42

uninformedfloww

Invested

$156

Value

$110.12

PnL

-$40.36

Record

51%

1376-1320 (2696)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$35.66

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$4.47

Record

48%

1314-1432 (2746)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.8

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$5.61

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.14

Value

$25.53

PnL

+$2.39

Record

38%

746-1216 (1962)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$28.45

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$8.25

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$49.51

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

1603-1367 (2970)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.99

Record

38%

657-1093 (1750)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

1191-1298 (2489)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.