Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$510.45
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $726.18 | $741 | +$14.82 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $503.7 | $505 | +$3.8 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $253.7 | $505 | +$251.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.5 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $233.19 | $206 | -$27.19 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 41.4¢ | $63.68 | $154 | +$90.32 | 59% 2959-2052 (5011) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $127.38 | $85.98 | -$36.1 | 49% 298-309 (607) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $64.54 | $36.08 | -$4.73 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $34.4 | — | -$34.4 | 38% 746-1216 (1962) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $31.15 | $25 | -$6.15 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $25.4 | $17 | -$7.65 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $7.87 | — | -$7.87 | 46% 1298-1506 (2804) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $5.46 | $7 | +$1.54 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $4.7 | $7.02 | +$2.32 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 17.2¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | 47% 935-1043 (1978) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $9.45 | — | +$10.45 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
Invested
$726.18
Value
$741
PnL
+$14.82
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$503.7
Value
$505
PnL
+$3.8
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$233.19
Value
$206
PnL
-$27.19
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$63.68
Value
$154
PnL
+$90.32
Record
59%
2959-2052 (5011)
Invested
$127.38
Value
$85.98
PnL
-$36.1
Record
49%
298-309 (607)
Invested
$64.54
Value
$36.08
PnL
-$4.73
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Invested
$34.4
Value
—
PnL
-$34.4
Record
38%
746-1216 (1962)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$31.15
Value
$25
PnL
-$6.15
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$25.4
Value
$17
PnL
-$7.65
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$7.87
Value
—
PnL
-$7.87
Record
46%
1298-1506 (2804)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.54
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$2.32
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
47%
935-1043 (1978)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
+$10.45
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $741
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $206
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $154
aswfadq1555
Up — $85.98
ply-pm2
Up — $36.08
13897651
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $25
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $17