Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 47%
$720.84
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $501.71 | — | -$500.71 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $360 | — | -$360 | 53% 314-279 (593) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $246.51 | $245.39 | -$1.13 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $172.26 | $174 | +$1.74 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 49¢ | $72.2 | $147.35 | +$75.15 | 48% 772-820 (1592) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 88.3¢ | $146.77 | $56.34 | +$8.57 | 59% 2959-2052 (5011) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $25.2 | $27 | +$1.8 | 49% 298-309 (607) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $24.99 | +$8.25 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $22.5 | $20.16 | -$2.34 | 38% 746-1216 (1962) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $34.79 | $14.89 | -$0.35 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $18.33 | — | -$18.33 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $6.65 | $7 | +$0.35 | 48% 1515-1649 (3164) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $1.78 | $3.71 | +$1.93 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $57 | — | -$57 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $12.1 | — | +$12.15 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$501.71
Value
—
PnL
-$500.71
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$360
Value
—
PnL
-$360
Record
53%
314-279 (593)
Invested
$246.51
Value
$245.39
PnL
-$1.13
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$172.26
Value
$174
PnL
+$1.74
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$72.2
Value
$147.35
PnL
+$75.15
Record
48%
772-820 (1592)
Invested
$146.77
Value
$56.34
PnL
+$8.57
Record
59%
2959-2052 (5011)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$27
PnL
+$1.8
Record
49%
298-309 (607)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$8.25
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$2.34
Record
38%
746-1216 (1962)
Invested
$34.79
Value
$14.89
PnL
-$0.35
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Invested
$18.33
Value
—
PnL
-$18.33
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
1515-1649 (3164)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$1.93
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
Invested
$57
Value
—
PnL
-$57
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$12.1
Value
—
PnL
+$12.15
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $245.39
hoodquant
Down — $174
PBot-5
Down — $147.35
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $56.34
aswfadq1555
Down — $27
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $24.99
13897651
Down — $20.16