Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (87%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 14¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$21.63

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 13.5¢

-72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 87%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL-$1.68

Down3 traders

Total Value$308.72

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$23.32

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.6¢	$155.68	$171.62	+$15.95	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$91.03	$98.06	+$7.03	49% 293-300 (593)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 82¢	$38.7	$39.04	+$0.34	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$16.45	$17.5	+$1.05	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15	$15	+$0	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 17.6¢	$9.7	$6.88	-$2.83	59% 2945-2044 (4989)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.91	+$0.09	48% 1171-1273 (2444)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$155.68

Value

$171.62

PnL

+$15.95

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$91.03

Value

$98.06

PnL

+$7.03

Record

49%

293-300 (593)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$38.7

Value

$39.04

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$2.83

Record

59%

2945-2044 (4989)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

1171-1273 (2444)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 87%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.4%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$550.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

650.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.