Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 38%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$192.04
Smart Money Signal
8 of 22 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $886.68 | $719.56 | -$162.47 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 82.7¢ | $234.92 | $284 | +$49.09 | 59% 2945-2044 (4989) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 21.4¢ | $166.73 | $103.49 | -$63.24 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.4¢ | $115 | — | -$115 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $51.73 | $103.49 | +$51.76 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 17.8¢ | $127.33 | $91.04 | -$36.3 | 49% 293-300 (593) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.8¢ | $68.5 | — | -$68.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $58.83 | $91.04 | +$32.21 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $137.05 | $104.35 | +$9.32 | 54% 1563-1340 (2903) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $70.6 | $84.26 | +$13.67 | 38% 732-1200 (1932) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.2¢ | $113.69 | $25 | -$16.46 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $18.75 | $18.94 | +$0.19 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $16.51 | — | -$16.51 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.9¢ | $20.9 | — | -$20.9 | 47% 1321-1484 (2805) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.8¢ | $9.73 | — | -$9.73 | 47% 912-1024 (1936) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.74 | — | -$1.74 | 38% 650-1081 (1731) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 44% 1290-1624 (2914) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 48% 1485-1609 (3094) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 38% 866-1417 (2283) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $14.3 | — | -$14.3 | 48% 1288-1398 (2686) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.6¢ | $9.84 | — | -$9.84 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.2¢ | $6.1 | — | -$1.68 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
Invested
$886.68
Value
$719.56
PnL
-$162.47
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$234.92
Value
$284
PnL
+$49.09
Record
59%
2945-2044 (4989)
Invested
$166.73
Value
$103.49
PnL
-$63.24
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.33
Value
$91.04
PnL
-$36.3
Record
49%
293-300 (593)
Both legs:
Invested
$137.05
Value
$104.35
PnL
+$9.32
Record
54%
1563-1340 (2903)
Invested
$70.6
Value
$84.26
PnL
+$13.67
Record
38%
732-1200 (1932)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$113.69
Value
$25
PnL
-$16.46
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.94
PnL
+$0.19
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$16.51
Value
—
PnL
-$16.51
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$20.9
Value
—
PnL
-$20.9
Record
47%
1321-1484 (2805)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$9.73
Value
—
PnL
-$9.73
Record
47%
912-1024 (1936)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1.74
Record
38%
650-1081 (1731)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
44%
1290-1624 (2914)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
48%
1485-1609 (3094)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
866-1417 (2283)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$14.3
Value
—
PnL
-$14.3
Record
48%
1288-1398 (2686)
Invested
$9.84
Value
—
PnL
-$9.84
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
Invested
$6.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $719.56
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $284
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $104.35
13897651
Down — $84.26
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $25
hoodquant
Down — $18.94