Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 36%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $640.04 | $643.46 | +$3.42 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 80¢ | $351.58 | $399.42 | +$70.53 | 59% 2924-2024 (4948) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $179.07 | $160.83 | -$18.25 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.8¢ | $75.21 | $160.83 | +$85.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $103.87 | — | -$103.87 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $87.79 | $89.08 | +$2.94 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
 cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $57.66 | $63.76 | +$6.1 | 47% 870-993 (1863) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.4¢ | $18.76 | $63.76 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.8¢ | $38.9 | — | -$38.9 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 37.9¢ | $107.31 | — | -$85.05 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $98.43 | — | -$79.18 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $64.33 | $64.98 | +$0.65 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $42.9 | $40.5 | +$13.18 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.7¢ | $30.34 | — | -$15.96 | 38% 714-1185 (1899) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.7¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $17.82 | — | -$17.82 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
Invested
$640.04
Value
$643.46
PnL
+$3.42
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$351.58
Value
$399.42
PnL
+$70.53
Record
59%
2924-2024 (4948)
Invested
$179.07
Value
$160.83
PnL
-$18.25
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.79
Value
$89.08
PnL
+$2.94
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100Invested
$57.66
Value
$63.76
PnL
+$6.1
Record
47%
870-993 (1863)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.31
Value
—
PnL
-$85.05
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$98.43
Value
—
PnL
-$79.18
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$64.33
Value
$64.98
PnL
+$0.65
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$13.18
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$30.34
Value
—
PnL
-$15.96
Record
38%
714-1185 (1899)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$17.82
Value
—
PnL
-$17.82
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $643.46
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $399.42
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $89.08
cryingbabydicer87
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $64.98