Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 75%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$52.37
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $482.13 | $487 | +$4.87 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $363.95 | $365.06 | +$1.11 | 53% 304-271 (575) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $183.95 | $365.06 | +$181.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 64¢ | $202.99 | $300.64 | +$97.64 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $280.43 | $218.94 | -$61.49 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 88¢ | $88 | $100 | +$12 | 59% 2924-2024 (4948) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $98.7 | — | -$98.7 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 39.5¢ | $100.06 | $62 | -$38.06 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.5¢ | $51.7 | — | -$51.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78¢ | $48.36 | $62 | +$13.64 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $26.32 | $40 | +$13.68 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $91.47 | $40.6 | +$1.36 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $32.02 | $42 | +$9.98 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.6¢ | $19.63 | — | -$19.63 | 47% 870-993 (1863) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 86¢ | $159.74 | $14.18 | -$4.04 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $15.55 | $15.98 | +$0.43 | 38% 714-1185 (1899) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $11.58 | $11.59 | +$0.01 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $10.78 | — | -$10.78 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $3.98 | $5.38 | +$1.4 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 38% 841-1390 (2231) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Both legs:
Invested
$482.13
Value
$487
PnL
+$4.87
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$363.95
Value
$365.06
PnL
+$1.11
Record
53%
304-271 (575)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.99
Value
$300.64
PnL
+$97.64
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
Invested
$280.43
Value
$218.94
PnL
-$61.49
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$88
Value
$100
PnL
+$12
Record
59%
2924-2024 (4948)
Invested
$98.7
Value
—
PnL
-$98.7
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$100.06
Value
$62
PnL
-$38.06
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$26.32
Value
$40
PnL
+$13.68
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Invested
$91.47
Value
$40.6
PnL
+$1.36
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$32.02
Value
$42
PnL
+$9.98
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$19.63
Value
—
PnL
-$19.63
Record
47%
870-993 (1863)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$159.74
Value
$14.18
PnL
-$4.04
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$15.98
PnL
+$0.43
Record
38%
714-1185 (1899)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$11.59
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$10.78
Value
—
PnL
-$10.78
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$1.4
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$1
Value
$2
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
841-1390 (2231)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $487
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Up — $300.64
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $218.94
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $100
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $40