Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$271.89
Smart Money Signal
15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 97.6¢ | $878.64 | $900 | +$21.36 | 37% 598-1014 (1612) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $516.22 | $739.5 | +$275.28 | 51% 1663-1626 (3289) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.5¢ | $233.04 | $427.73 | +$194.69 | 51% 1179-1131 (2310) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 94¢ | $360.82 | $383.99 | +$23.17 | 59% 2910-2008 (4918) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $360 | +$3.8 | 52% 274-257 (531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $360 | +$180 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $175 | — | -$176.2 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $154.38 | $341.21 | +$186.83 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $79.9 | $83.74 | +$3.84 | 60% 2276-1514 (3790) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $62.81 | $60 | +$7.15 | 53% 1297-1168 (2465) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $51.3 | $36 | +$5.44 | 53% 1476-1292 (2768) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.7¢ | $48.88 | — | -$48.88 | 49% 275-284 (559) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $30 | +$16.8 | 50% 3983-3986 (7969) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $30 | +$16.8 | 47% 750-851 (1601) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $29.99 | +$16.8 | 46% 754-869 (1623) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $6.61 | $9.52 | +$2.91 | 47% 809-896 (1705) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 47% 1384-1531 (2915) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.52 | $5.6 | +$3.08 | 37% 700-1167 (1867) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 48% 695-751 (1446) |
Invested
$878.64
Value
$900
PnL
+$21.36
Record
37%
598-1014 (1612)
Invested
$516.22
Value
$739.5
PnL
+$275.28
Record
51%
1663-1626 (3289)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$233.04
Value
$427.73
PnL
+$194.69
Record
51%
1179-1131 (2310)
Invested
$360.82
Value
$383.99
PnL
+$23.17
Record
59%
2910-2008 (4918)
Invested
$360
Value
$360
PnL
+$3.8
Record
52%
274-257 (531)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.38
Value
$341.21
PnL
+$186.83
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$83.74
PnL
+$3.84
Record
60%
2276-1514 (3790)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$62.81
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.15
Record
53%
1297-1168 (2465)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$36
PnL
+$5.44
Record
53%
1476-1292 (2768)
Invested
$48.88
Value
—
PnL
-$48.88
Record
49%
275-284 (559)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$16.8
Record
50%
3983-3986 (7969)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$16.8
Record
47%
750-851 (1601)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$16.8
Record
46%
754-869 (1623)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$6.61
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$2.91
Record
47%
809-896 (1705)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
1384-1531 (2915)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$3.08
Record
37%
700-1167 (1867)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
48%
695-751 (1446)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $900
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $739.5
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $427.73
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $383.99
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
Down — $341.21
aaa221
Down — $83.74
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $60