Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

19 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$714.36

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,590

Combined PnL+$736.42

Up4 traders

Total Value$21.69

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$22.06

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 86% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$158.72	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 82.5¢	$957.63	$1.2K	+$202.27	51% 1179-1131 (2310)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 88.8¢	$800.3	$900.55	+$100.25	37% 598-1014 (1612)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$490.5	-$9.5	—
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$490.5	-$9.5	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 46.2¢	$220.46	$462.41	+$241.95	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$360	$353.16	-$6.84	52% 274-257 (531)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$125.73	$123.19	-$2.54	98% 2138-43 (2181)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 76.5¢	$109.83	$103.99	-$5.84	49% 275-284 (559)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$82.84	$84.97	+$12.1	53% 1297-1168 (2465)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 79.9¢	$47.95	$58.2	+$10.25	47% 809-896 (1705)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$45.95	$38.8	+$22.85	59% 2910-2008 (4918)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$69.02	$29.31	+$4.91	53% 1476-1292 (2768)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 14.6¢	$23	$21.54	+$0.83	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 85¢	$20.8	$20	-$0.8	49% 1222-1296 (2518)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 84¢	$14.45	$14.86	+$0.41	44% 1205-1516 (2721)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 85¢	$14.65	$14.85	+$0.2	46% 1190-1388 (2578)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 40¢	$8.94	$6.18	+$8.86	47% 750-851 (1601)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$4.5	$5.58	+$1.08	47% 1384-1531 (2915)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$7.76	$5.35	+$7.58	46% 754-869 (1623)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$3.6	$0.09	-$3.51	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 16.7¢	$15.44	$0.05	-$15.39	37% 700-1167 (1867)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$4	$0.01	-$3.99	47% 1241-1387 (2628)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,081.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$158.72

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$957.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$202.27

Record

51%

1179-1131 (2310)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$800.3

Value

$900.55

PnL

+$100.25

Record

37%

598-1014 (1612)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$490.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$490.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$220.46

Value

$462.41

PnL

+$241.95

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$360

Value

$353.16

PnL

-$6.84

Record

52%

274-257 (531)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$125.73

Value

$123.19

PnL

-$2.54

Record

98%

2138-43 (2181)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$109.83

Value

$103.99

PnL

-$5.84

Record

49%

275-284 (559)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$82.84

Value

$84.97

PnL

+$12.1

Record

53%

1297-1168 (2465)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$47.95

Value

$58.2

PnL

+$10.25

Record

47%

809-896 (1705)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$45.95

Value

$38.8

PnL

+$22.85

Record

59%

2910-2008 (4918)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$69.02

Value

$29.31

PnL

+$4.91

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$21.54

PnL

+$0.83

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

1222-1296 (2518)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$14.45

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$0.41

Record

44%

1205-1516 (2721)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$8.94

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$8.86

Record

47%

750-851 (1601)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$1.08

Record

47%

1384-1531 (2915)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$7.76

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$7.58

Record

46%

754-869 (1623)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.51

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$15.44

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$15.39

Record

37%

700-1167 (1867)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.99

Record

47%

1241-1387 (2628)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 86% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.