Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (73%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (73%) · Up at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up28¢Down72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$63.05

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 27.5¢

-43% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Down 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up28%

Down73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,251

Combined PnL+$0.27

Down4 traders

Total Value$346.43

Total Shares495

Combined PnL+$62.79

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$364.1	$363.98	-$0.12	51% 254-244 (498)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$184.1	$290.18	+$106.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$180	$73.8	-$106.2
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 56.1¢	$224.57	$280	+$55.43	59% 2906-2005 (4911)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$167.29	$177.16	+$9.87	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$98	$108	+$10
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$69.29	$69.16	-$0.13
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$48.14	$52.59	+$5.75	37% 685-1150 (1835)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$39.98	$43.05	+$3.07	50% 1101-1104 (2205)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 35.1¢	$17.75	$24.18	+$6.43	49% 271-280 (551)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$46.08	$14.11	-$1.97	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 28¢	$7.97	$9.82	+$1.85	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.9	+$0.5	44% 1174-1476 (2650)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$7	$7.8	+$0.8	48% 1183-1263 (2446)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$13.63	$7.21	-$6.42	46% 1152-1359 (2511)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$7.6	$6	-$1.6	47% 1200-1358 (2558)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$4.26	$4.02	-$0.24	50% 396-392 (788)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$3.1	$2.75	-$0.35	47% 783-880 (1663)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$1.86	$1.66	-$0.2	47% 1493-1672 (3165)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$364.1

Value

$363.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

254-244 (498)

Both legs:

Up$184.150.4¢+$106.08

Down$18050¢-$106.2

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$224.57

Value

$280

PnL

+$55.43

Record

59%

2906-2005 (4911)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167.29

Value

$177.16

PnL

+$9.87

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.14

Value

$52.59

PnL

+$5.75

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$39.98

Value

$43.05

PnL

+$3.07

Record

50%

1101-1104 (2205)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$6.43

Record

49%

271-280 (551)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$46.08

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$1.97

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$7.97

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$1.85

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

1174-1476 (2650)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

1183-1263 (2446)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$13.63

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$6.42

Record

46%

1152-1359 (2511)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

47%

1200-1358 (2558)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

396-392 (788)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

783-880 (1663)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Down 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.9%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$234.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

334.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.