Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (95%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$67.91

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 5.5¢

-88% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Down 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$644.58

Total Shares1,157

Combined PnL-$181.1

Down7 traders

Total Value$905.53

Total Shares935

Combined PnL+$113.19

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$510.69	$502.45	-$3.89	57% 2260-1719 (3979)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$255.27	$381.28	+$125.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$247.88	$121.18	-$129.52
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$361.65	$355	+$1.8	50% 224-222 (446)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 54.3¢	$267.98	$348.9	+$80.92	51% 1604-1553 (3157)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$64.56	$65.65	+$1.1	60% 2128-1425 (3553)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$28.37	$48.3	+$19.93	37% 662-1125 (1787)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69¢	$57.49	$38.92	-$3.25	53% 1383-1227 (2610)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$20.95	$33.6	+$12.65	48% 1128-1223 (2351)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$31.64	$33.11	+$1.48	49% 259-270 (529)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 41.9¢	$209.34	$32.47	-$176.87	59% 2873-1960 (4833)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$26.21	$27.89	+$1.67	48% 1986-2186 (4172)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$27.05	$25	-$2.05	53% 1222-1079 (2301)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 72¢	$16.35	$15.15	+$0.04	74% 897-310 (1207)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$20.85	$15	-$5.85	47% 1150-1313 (2463)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	48% 650-716 (1366)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$4.5	$4.89	+$0.39	48% 1035-1129 (2164)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.23	-$0.17	47% 761-858 (1619)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$510.69

Value

$502.45

PnL

-$3.89

Record

57%

2260-1719 (3979)

Both legs:

Down$255.2750.5¢+$125.62

Up$247.8850.1¢-$129.52

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$361.65

Value

$355

PnL

+$1.8

Record

50%

224-222 (446)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$267.98

Value

$348.9

PnL

+$80.92

Record

51%

1604-1553 (3157)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$64.56

Value

$65.65

PnL

+$1.1

Record

60%

2128-1425 (3553)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$28.37

Value

$48.3

PnL

+$19.93

Record

37%

662-1125 (1787)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$57.49

Value

$38.92

PnL

-$3.25

Record

53%

1383-1227 (2610)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.95

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$12.65

Record

48%

1128-1223 (2351)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$31.64

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$1.48

Record

49%

259-270 (529)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$209.34

Value

$32.47

PnL

-$176.87

Record

59%

2873-1960 (4833)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$26.21

Value

$27.89

PnL

+$1.67

Record

48%

1986-2186 (4172)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$27.05

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.05

Record

53%

1222-1079 (2301)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$16.35

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.04

Record

74%

897-310 (1207)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$15

PnL

-$5.85

Record

47%

1150-1313 (2463)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

650-716 (1366)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

1035-1129 (2164)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

761-858 (1619)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Down 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1343.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

1444.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.