Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 35%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$550.23
Smart Money Signal
6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $505 | — | -$489.8 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $360 | +$3.7 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $177.5 | — | -$176.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $360 | +$180 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $339.68 | $319.5 | -$20.18 | 51% 1604-1553 (3157) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $49.25 | $50 | +$0.75 | 98% 2090-43 (2133) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $47.43 | $29.99 | +$2.56 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $45.56 | $33.39 | -$3.77 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $69.11 | $27.5 | +$2.22 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $28.32 | $59 | +$30.68 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $7.2 | $15.32 | +$8.12 | 46% 1103-1315 (2418) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $12 | $12.5 | +$0.5 | 37% 662-1125 (1787) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $11.04 | $23 | +$11.96 | 48% 1986-2186 (4172) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 59% 2873-1960 (4833) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $7.15 | $5 | -$2.15 | 49% 259-270 (529) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $4.78 | $10.78 | +$6 | 50% 381-386 (767) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 13.8¢ | $75.06 | — | -$75.06 | 38% 576-948 (1524) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.1¢ | $7.18 | — | -$7.18 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 47% 1150-1313 (2463) |
Invested
$505
Value
—
PnL
-$489.8
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$360
Value
$360
PnL
+$3.7
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Both legs:
Invested
$339.68
Value
$319.5
PnL
-$20.18
Record
51%
1604-1553 (3157)
Invested
$49.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.75
Record
98%
2090-43 (2133)
Invested
$47.43
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$2.56
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$45.56
Value
$33.39
PnL
-$3.77
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$69.11
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$2.22
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$59
PnL
+$30.68
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$15.32
PnL
+$8.12
Record
46%
1103-1315 (2418)
Invested
$12
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
37%
662-1125 (1787)
Invested
$11.04
Value
$23
PnL
+$11.96
Record
48%
1986-2186 (4172)
Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
59%
2873-1960 (4833)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.15
Record
49%
259-270 (529)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$6
Record
50%
381-386 (767)
Invested
$75.06
Value
—
PnL
-$75.06
Record
38%
576-948 (1524)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.18
Value
—
PnL
-$7.18
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
47%
1150-1313 (2463)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $319.5
hoodquant
Down — $50
ply-pm2
Down — $29.99
aaa221
Down — $33.39
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $27.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $59
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $15.32