Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$3.22

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 99.5¢

+67% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$806.06

Total Shares863

Combined PnL+$3.78

Up4 traders

Total Value$506.82

Total Shares596

Combined PnL-$0.56

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.3¢	$503.84	$502.46	+$1.82	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 87.8¢	$189.11	$189.09	-$0.01	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$70.81	$72.99	+$2.18	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15	$15	+$0	50% 377-383 (760)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$12.52	$14.32	+$1.8	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 89¢	$12.5	$10.43	-$2.08	49% 255-268 (523)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$5.7	$5.55	-$0.15	60% 2827-1912 (4739)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 85¢	$1.7	$1.77	+$0.07	48% 1113-1213 (2326)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$1.1	$0.98	-$0.12	37% 656-1119 (1775)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.58	$0.29	-$0.29	38% 571-935 (1506)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$503.84

Value

$502.46

PnL

+$1.82

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$189.11

Value

$189.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$70.81

Value

$72.99

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

377-383 (760)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$12.52

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$12.5

Value

$10.43

PnL

-$2.08

Record

49%

255-268 (523)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

60%

2827-1912 (4739)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1113-1213 (2326)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

37%

656-1119 (1775)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.29

Record

38%

571-935 (1506)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.