Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 38%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$434.58
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 40.1¢ | $846.71 | $1.1K | +$233.55 | 51% 1602-1552 (3154) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $527.74 | $497.15 | -$6.31 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $249.69 | $497.15 | +$247.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $249.38 | — | -$254.2 | |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $360 | +$4.45 | 50% 216-217 (433) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $227.91 | $188.17 | -$19.75 | 53% 1371-1214 (2585) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.3¢ | $113.37 | $188.17 | +$72.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.5¢ | $93.99 | — | -$92.49 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $97.23 | $109.82 | +$17.29 | 37% 656-1119 (1775) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $15.6 | — | -$15.6 | 46% 699-813 (1512) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $13.05 | — | -$13.05 | 46% 1093-1302 (2395) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $12.59 | — | -$12.59 | 49% 255-268 (523) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $8.1 | $15 | +$6.9 | 48% 1113-1213 (2326) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $6.72 | $12.4 | +$5.68 | 47% 753-850 (1603) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $5.4 | — | -$5.4 | 47% 1270-1451 (2721) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 47.5¢ | $137.9 | — | -$134.9 | 60% 2827-1912 (4739) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $0.48 | $0.98 | +$0.5 | 48% 1024-1120 (2144) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $15.8 | — | -$15.8 | 44% 1117-1407 (2524) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
Invested
$846.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$233.55
Record
51%
1602-1552 (3154)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$527.74
Value
$497.15
PnL
-$6.31
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Both legs:
Invested
$360
Value
$360
PnL
+$4.45
Record
50%
216-217 (433)
Invested
$227.91
Value
$188.17
PnL
-$19.75
Record
53%
1371-1214 (2585)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.23
Value
$109.82
PnL
+$17.29
Record
37%
656-1119 (1775)
Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$15.6
Record
46%
699-813 (1512)
Invested
$13.05
Value
—
PnL
-$13.05
Record
46%
1093-1302 (2395)
Invested
$12.59
Value
—
PnL
-$12.59
Record
49%
255-268 (523)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.9
Record
48%
1113-1213 (2326)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$6.72
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$5.68
Record
47%
753-850 (1603)
Invested
$5.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.4
Record
47%
1270-1451 (2721)
Invested
$137.9
Value
—
PnL
-$134.9
Record
60%
2827-1912 (4739)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
1024-1120 (2144)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$15.8
Value
—
PnL
-$15.8
Record
44%
1117-1407 (2524)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.1K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
Down — $360
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $109.82
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $15