Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (82%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 19¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$46.98

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 18.5¢

-61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$588.74

Total Shares812

Combined PnL-$52.55

Down5 traders

Total Value$139.9

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$5.57

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$514	$500	-$4.7	58% 2058-1520 (3578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$249.13	$382.5	+$130.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$249.9	$117.5	-$135.2
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$48.65	$54.07	+$5.42	50% 1323-1316 (2639)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$53.04	$52.84	-$0.2	53% 1273-1127 (2400)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$89.26	$37.37	-$51.89	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$28.5	$28.13	-$0.38	49% 786-802 (1588)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 70¢	$23.86	$22.73	-$1.14	—
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15.14	$15.15	+$0.01	53% 1148-1015 (2163)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.1	-$0.3	46% 569-681 (1250)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 59¢	$4.6	$5.82	+$1.22	37% 628-1091 (1719)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.17	$4.43	+$0.27	48% 1454-1600 (3054)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514

Value

$500

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

2058-1520 (3578)

Both legs:

Down$249.1349.8¢+$130.5

Up$249.950¢-$135.2

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$48.65

Value

$54.07

PnL

+$5.42

Record

50%

1323-1316 (2639)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$53.04

Value

$52.84

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1273-1127 (2400)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$89.26

Value

$37.37

PnL

-$51.89

Record

60%

2627-1728 (4355)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

786-802 (1588)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$23.86

Value

$22.73

PnL

-$1.14

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

1148-1015 (2163)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

569-681 (1250)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$1.22

Record

37%

628-1091 (1719)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$385.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

485.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.