Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (44%) · Down at 100¢ · $368 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

Total Value

$368.31

Combined PnL

$28.16

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$334.81

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$29.39

Up9 traders

Total Value$33.5

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$1.23

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 71.3¢	$138.18	$161.99	+$24.51	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$51.73	$51.52	-$0.22	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$44.28	$44.3	+$0.02	47% 619-701 (1320)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.84	+$0.14	98% 1899-39 (1938)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 66¢	$18.6	$20	+$1.4	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$12.74	$16.34	+$3.6	—
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 16.5¢	$12.12	$14.09	+$1.97	36% 617-1088 (1705)
D8 0xd8f1...74a9<$100	Downavg 82¢	$10.89	$10.82	-$0.07	—
5E 0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100	Upavg 13.5¢	$5.52	$5.71	+$0.19	—
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 7.4¢	$2.22	$5.03	+$2.81	47% 654-750 (1404)
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.7	+$0.1	—
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 7.3¢	$1.1	$2.52	+$1.42	50% 3878-3890 (7768)
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.26	$1.17	-$0.09	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$12.13	$0.69	-$7.64	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$0.48	$0.5	+$0.02	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.09	-$0.01	38% 709-1165 (1874)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$138.18

Value

$161.99

PnL

+$24.51

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$51.73

Value

$51.52

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$44.28

Value

$44.3

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

619-701 (1320)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$0.14

Record

98%

1899-39 (1938)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$1.4

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

0x7e5d...c4c3<$100

Down

Invested

$12.74

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$3.6

Record

—

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$12.12

Value

$14.09

PnL

+$1.97

Record

36%

617-1088 (1705)

0xd8f1...74a9<$100

Down

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.19

Record

—

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$2.81

Record

47%

654-750 (1404)

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$1.42

Record

50%

3878-3890 (7768)

0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.09

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$12.13

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$7.64

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

709-1165 (1874)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.