Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 100¢ · $903 held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

Total Value

$902.93

Combined PnL

-$159.41

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$783.73

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$37.53

Down10 traders

Total Value$119.2

Total Shares1,238

Combined PnL-$196.93

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$526.04	$534.61	+$8.57	98% 1899-39 (1938)
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3	Upavg 66.3¢	$103.43	$129.52	+$26.09	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 22¢	$290.79	$73.18	-$61.26	49% 767-785 (1552)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$56.1	$60.38	+$4.29	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 79.7¢	$47.95	$40	-$3	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 34.4¢	$40.98	$16.34	-$17.96	36% 617-1088 (1705)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 80¢	$14.59	$16.14	+$1.55	46% 656-776 (1432)
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$10.04	$10.58	+$0.54	—
D8 0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$19.22	$8.73	-$0.48	—
21 0x21d0...e8d7CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.3	$5	-$0.3	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.51	$3.69	+$0.18	48% 1014-1081 (2095)
82 0x828b...a12b<$100	Upavg 60¢	$3.05	$3.08	+$0.03	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$6.5	$1.45	+$5.9	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 29.8¢	$105.01	$0.18	-$104.83	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
42 0x424e...263bCTR<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$9.26	$0.02	-$9.23	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$9.51	$0.02	-$9.49	44% 990-1249 (2239)

hoodquant

Invested

$526.04

Value

$534.61

PnL

+$8.57

Record

98%

1899-39 (1938)

0x7e5d...c4c3

Invested

$103.43

Value

$129.52

PnL

+$26.09

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$290.79

Value

$73.18

PnL

-$61.26

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$56.1

Value

$60.38

PnL

+$4.29

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$47.95

Value

$40

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.98

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$17.96

Record

36%

617-1088 (1705)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$14.59

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$1.55

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.04

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.54

Record

—

0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.22

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$0.48

Record

—

0x21d0...e8d7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

0x828b...a12b<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$5.9

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$105.01

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$104.83

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

0x424e...263bCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.23

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.49

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.