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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 67%
Total Value
$145.73
Combined PnL
-$47.65
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$145.73
Total Shares146
Combined PnL+$40.78
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares254
Combined PnL-$88.43
Up — 33%Down — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $90.05 | $130.73 | +$40.68 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $17.5 | — | -$17.5 | 48% 583-642 (1225) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 83.7¢ | $14.9 | $15 | +$0.1 | 53% 1226-1085 (2311) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.8¢ | $60.2 | — | -$60.2 | 60% 2603-1711 (4314) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $8.5 | — | -$8.5 | 50% 732-740 (1472) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $2.23 | — | -$2.23 | 36% 597-1076 (1673) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609Invested
$90.05
Value
$130.73
PnL
+$40.68
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
PB
PBot-5CTR<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
—
PnL
-$17.5
Record
48%
583-642 (1225)
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$14.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
1226-1085 (2311)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$60.2
Value
—
PnL
-$60.2
Record
60%
2603-1711 (4314)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
—
PnL
-$8.5
Record
50%
732-740 (1472)
13
13897651CTR<$100Invested
$2.23
Value
—
PnL
-$2.23
Record
36%
597-1076 (1673)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5b09f585...b454fc
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1794442500