Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (36%) · Up at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Up84¢Down16¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 36%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$111.05

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 83.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up84%

Down17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$726.45

Total Shares805

Combined PnL-$85.35

Down9 traders

Total Value$485.93

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL-$25.7

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76.4¢	$702.28	$578	-$73.08	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 28.3¢	$420.17	$407.72	-$12.45	49% 706-726 (1432)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$81.48	$76.12	-$5.36	37% 435-728 (1163)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$47.85	$37.94	-$1.41	53% 1080-957 (2037)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$48.35	$31.63	-$16.72	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 83¢	$35.86	$30.43	-$5.42	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$14.72	$15.96	+$1.24	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$14.1	$15	+$0.9	45% 619-745 (1364)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$3.69	$4.1	+$0.41	48% 575-634 (1209)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 74¢	$4.04	$3.96	-$0.08	36% 589-1068 (1657)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$2.97	$3.03	+$0.06	44% 945-1197 (2142)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.23	+$0.28	46% 613-725 (1338)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$1.18	$1.28	+$0.1	48% 950-1050 (2000)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$702.28

Value

$578

PnL

-$73.08

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$420.17

Value

$407.72

PnL

-$12.45

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$81.48

Value

$76.12

PnL

-$5.36

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$47.85

Value

$37.94

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.35

Value

$31.63

PnL

-$16.72

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$35.86

Value

$30.43

PnL

-$5.42

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.72

Value

$15.96

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.1

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.9

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.69

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

575-634 (1209)

13897651<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

589-1068 (1657)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

945-1197 (2142)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.28

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.