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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 21%

Total Value

$760.49

Combined PnL

-$222.8

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares674

Combined PnL-$414.59

Down11 traders

Total Value$760.49

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$191.78

Up — 21%Down — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 35.6¢	$209.81	—	-$188.66	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 48¢	$142.65	$213.41	+$87.76	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$101.11	$102.18	+$1.07	98% 1837-39 (1876)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 64.8¢	$101.16	$94.99	-$6.17	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.7¢	$115.16	$90	-$6.76	53% 1080-957 (2037)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.5¢	$56.41	$124	+$67.59	48% 950-1050 (2000)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 67¢	$32.1	$30	-$2.1	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 56¢	$9.45	$16.88	+$7.43	48% 962-1040 (2002)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 63¢	$18.9	$30	+$11.1	45% 619-745 (1364)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 63¢	$13.83	$21.95	+$8.12	46% 613-725 (1338)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 32.7¢	$10.48	$32.08	+$21.6	49% 706-726 (1432)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 57¢	$2.85	$5	+$2.15	36% 589-1068 (1657)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 75.3¢	$225.87	—	-$225.87	37% 435-728 (1163)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 687-1125 (1812)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$209.81

Value

—

PnL

-$188.66

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$142.65

Value

$213.41

PnL

+$87.76

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

Invested

$101.11

Value

$102.18

PnL

+$1.07

Record

98%

1837-39 (1876)

Invested

$101.16

Value

$94.99

PnL

-$6.17

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

Invested

$115.16

Value

$90

PnL

-$6.76

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$56.41

Value

$124

PnL

+$67.59

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

Invested

$32.1

Value

$30

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

Invested

$9.45

Value

$16.88

PnL

+$7.43

Record

48%

962-1040 (2002)

Invested

$18.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$11.1

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

Invested

$13.83

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$8.12

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$10.48

Value

$32.08

PnL

+$21.6

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.15

Record

36%

589-1068 (1657)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$225.87

Value

—

PnL

-$225.87

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

687-1125 (1812)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6ecff399...36d415

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794438000

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $213.41

hoodquant

Down — $102.18

ply-pm2

Down — $94.99

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $90

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $124

bosona

Down — $30

ohioism

Down — $16.88

mo-money

Down — $30

almach

Down — $21.95

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